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An editorial index, not a forecast

The AGI Clock

Counting down to December 2030, a published baseline moved only by the dated, sourced news below. Every adjustment is visible; nothing moves the clock silently.

About 1,512 days remain until the current index date.

Baseline March 2031 · adjustment −81 days across 9 items · current index December 2030

What moved the clock

Each card is one editorial judgment: the story, why it matters for the index, and exactly how many days it moved the date. Negative adjustments pull the index nearer; positive push it out.

  • capabilities · 8 September 2026

    −30 days

    OpenAI claims an agent-produced Navier-Stokes blowup proof with a Lean formalization

    An unreleased model above GPT-6 Astra ran about 10,000 agents for 88 hours to produce a finite-time blowup proof and a machine-checkable Lean file. Unverified, and the credit is disputed.

    Sustained research mathematics with a machine-checkable artifact is a real capability jump and reveals an internal model ahead of anything shipped. Held to -30: no independent verification, and humans built the programme it used.

    OpenAI: On the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem →

  • capabilities · 3 September 2026

    −30 days

    OpenAI ships GPT-6 Astra, its first model rated Critical for cyber capability

    GPT-6 Astra saturates FrontierMath Tier 4 at 97.6% and ExploitBench at 100%, and is the first model OpenAI rates Critical for cyber capability under its Preparedness Framework.

    Finding unknown flaws and building working exploits without step-by-step human direction is a real autonomy jump. Held to -30 because the independent Artificial Analysis index first scored Astra level with its own predecessor.

    OpenAI: safety overview for GPT-6 Astra →

  • policy · 2 August 2026

    +7 days

    EU AI Act's main obligations take effect across member states

    From August 2, 2026 most remaining provisions of the EU AI Act apply, bringing high-risk system rules, governance requirements, and national regulatory sandboxes into force.

    Compliance overhead slows frontier deployment in a major market; a modest outward nudge.

    EU AI Act implementation timeline →

  • industry · 26 July 2026

    −7 days

    Open-weight models reach frontier scale with Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4

    Moonshot AI published full weights for the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, and DeepSeek V4 hit general availability with MIT-licensed variants scoring 80.6% on SWE-bench Verified.

    Frontier-scale capability diffusing as open weights broadens the base of labs pushing the frontier.

    ThursdAI July 2026 release roundup →

  • compute · 22 July 2026

    −14 days

    AMD and Anthropic strike a 2-gigawatt compute partnership

    Anthropic will deploy up to 2 GW of AMD Instinct MI450-series GPUs in Helios rack-scale systems starting in 2027, with AMD committing up to $5 billion in equity investment.

    Multi-gigawatt capacity commitments keep training-compute growth on its steep trajectory.

    AMD newsroom →

  • capabilities · 9 July 2026

    −21 days

    OpenAI launches the GPT-5.6 family after a US government review

    GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna went public on July 9 with state-of-the-art results across coding, knowledge work, cybersecurity, and science, after a Commerce Department review cleared broad access.

    A new flagship posting state-of-the-art results across broad domains lands ahead of typical release-cadence expectations.

    OpenAI →

  • policy · 26 June 2026

    +14 days

    US government preemptively restricts a frontier model launch

    OpenAI limited GPT-5.6 to vetted preview partners at the US government's request, the first time Washington preemptively asked an American lab to hold back a model before release.

    Pre-release government gating adds a new institutional checkpoint between frontier capability and broad deployment.

    VentureBeat →

  • capabilities · 9 June 2026

    −30 days

    Anthropic ships Claude Fable 5 and opens Mythos 5 to approved organizations

    Anthropic's Mythos-class models launched June 9, citing months of engineering compressed into days at customers, state-of-the-art vision results, and novel drug-design work in the life sciences.

    A new model class above the previous flagship tier, with enterprise results cited in production, is the strongest capability signal of the year so far.

    Anthropic →

  • research · 12 April 2026

    +30 days

    Professional forecasters pushed AGI timelines out through 2025

    FutureSearch's tracker finds the Metaculus community, Dario Amodei, and forecaster Peter Wildeford all moved their AGI dates later between 2025 and 2026.

    When the aggregate of serious forecasters moves later, the index should track it; this is the anchor class the baseline is built on.

    FutureSearch AGI timeline tracker →

Explore the mathematics behind the progress

Follow AI research through individual mathematical results, short explanations and links to the original proofs. Our directory starts with OpenAI's public mathematics collection.

Browse AI Mathematics ↗

How this AGI countdown works

The baseline anchors to the median of public AGI forecasts when this index launched in August 2026: the Metaculus community question on the first general AI system, aggregate expert surveys, and published forecaster timelines. It is an editorial reference point, not a prediction; only the listed news items move the clock from it.

This is not a prediction market, a scientific forecast, or a promise. Nobody knows when, or whether, artificial general intelligence arrives, let alone the technological singularity some expect to follow it. The clock is a way of reading the news: a fixed anchor, explicit adjustments, and a source for every one of them, so you can disagree with any movement on the record.

Baseline sources

AGI countdown FAQ

When will AGI arrive?
Nobody knows. Public forecasts range from a few years to several decades, and serious forecasters revise in both directions. This AGI countdown currently reads December 2030: a baseline anchored to cited public forecasts, adjusted only by the dated news items listed on this page.
What is the AGI Clock?
A live countdown to an editorial index date for artificial general intelligence. Unlike most AGI clocks, its method is fully visible: a published baseline plus a signed day adjustment per news item, each with a source you can check and disagree with.
Is the technological singularity around the corner?
The singularity, the point where AI improves itself faster than humans can follow, would come after AGI, and no one can honestly date either. Some lab leaders talk in years; many forecasters and surveyed experts say decades. This page tracks the news that moves those estimates, with sources.
How is this AGI countdown calculated?
Target date = published baseline + the sum of per-news-item day deltas. The baseline cites public forecast sources; every adjustment is bounded, dated, sourced, and shown as a card. It is an editorial index, not a prediction market or a scientific forecast.
What counts as artificial general intelligence?
Definitions differ, which is one reason timelines differ. A common bar: an AI system that matches or exceeds human performance across most economically valuable cognitive work, not just single benchmarks. The baseline sources on this page each state the definition they forecast against.

Whatever the date turns out to be, AI can already do real work for you today. Describe the outcome and get a Blueprint: the right tools, the right prompt, and the steps to follow.

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